PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ (Form: 8-K, Received: 08/11/2009 16:22:13)

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 8-K

CURRENT REPORT

Pursuant to Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

Date of Report (Date of earliest event reported) August 11, 2009

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Ohio

1-9518

34-0963169

(State or other jurisdiction

of incorporation)

(Commission File Number)

(IRS Employer

Identification No.)

6300 Wilson Mills Road, Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143

(Address of principal executive offices) (Zip Code)

Registrant’s telephone number, including area code 440-461-5000

Not Applicable

(Former name or former address, if changed since last report)

Check the appropriate box below if the Form 8-K filing is intended to simultaneously satisfy the filing obligation of the registrant under any of the following provisions (see General Instruction A.2. below):

¨	Written communications pursuant to Rule 425 under the Securities Act (17 CFR 230.425)

¨	Soliciting material pursuant to Rule 14a-12 under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14a-12)

¨	Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 14d-2(b) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.14d-2(b))

¨	Pre-commencement communications pursuant to Rule 13e-4(c) under the Exchange Act (17 CFR 240.13e-4(c))

Item 7.01

Regulation FD Disclosure.

On August 11, 2009, The Progressive Corporation issued a news release containing financial results for the Company and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month of, and year-to-date period ended, July 2009. A copy of the news release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.

Item 9.01

Financial Statements and Exhibits.

(d)

Exhibits

See exhibit index on page 4.

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SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized.

Date: August 11, 2009


THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION

By:		/s/ Jeffrey W. Basch
Name:		Jeffrey W. Basch
Title:		Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer

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EXHIBIT INDEX


Exhibit No. Under Reg. S-K Item 601	Form 8-K Exhibit No.	Description
(99)	99	News release dated August 11, 2009, containing financial results of The Progressive Corporation and its consolidated subsidiaries for the month of, and year-to-date period ended, July 2009.

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Exhibit 99


		NEWS RELEASE


The Progressive Corporation		Company Contact:
6300 Wilson Mills Road		Patrick Brennan
Mayfield Village, Ohio 44143		(440) 395-2370
http://www.progressive.com

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS JULY RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO — August 11, 2009 — The Progressive Corporation today reported the following results for July 2009:


(millions, except per share amounts and ratios)	July 2009		July 2008			Change

Net premiums written	$	1,365.8	$	1,383.8		(1	)%
Net premiums earned	$	1,325.0	$	1,314.2		1	%
Net income	$	114.9	$	81.8		40	%
Per share	$	.17	$	.12		40	%
Pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities	$	25.8	$	(16.1	)	NM
Combined ratio		91.0		92.8		(1.8	) pts.
Average diluted equivalent shares		673.5		672.9		0	%
NM = Not Meaningful


(in thousands)	July 2009	July 2008	Change

Policies in Force:
Agency – Auto	4,338.2	4,395.6	(1	)%
Direct – Auto	3,070.6	2,740.5	12	%

Total Personal Auto	7,408.8	7,136.1	4	%
Total Special Lines	3,496.5	3,384.8	3	%

Total Personal Lines	10,905.3	10,520.9	4	%

Total Commercial Auto	529.9	556.5	(5	)%

Progressive offers insurance to personal and commercial auto drivers throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines Business writes insurance for private passenger automobiles and recreational vehicles. Our Commercial Auto Business writes primary liability, physical damage, and other auto-related insurance for automobiles and trucks owned by small businesses.

See the “Income Statements” and “Supplemental Information” for further month and year-to-date information and the “Monthly Commentary” at the end of this release for additional discussion.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENT

July 2009

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	Current Month		Comments on Monthly Results ¹

Net premiums written	$	1,365.8


Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	1,325.0
Investment income		39.7
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		25.8
Service revenues		1.8

Total revenues		1,392.3


Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		928.5
Policy acquisition costs		127.6
Other underwriting expenses		149.7
Investment expenses		1.5
Service expenses		1.8
Interest expense		11.8

Total expenses		1,220.9


Income before income taxes		171.4
Provision for income taxes		56.5

Net income	$	114.9


COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		668.0

Per share	$	.17

Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		668.0
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		5.5

Total equivalent shares		673.5

Per share	$	.17

See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our reporting and accounting policies, see Note 1 to our 2008 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2008 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport .

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENTS

July 2009 Year-to-Date

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	Year-to-Date
	2009			2008			% Change
Net premiums written	$	8,417.3		$	8,384.9		0


Revenues:
Net premiums earned	$	8,173.0		$	8,115.4		1
Investment income		293.3			376.9		(22	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities:
Other-than-temporary impairment losses:
Total other-than-temporary impairment losses		(53.8	)
Less: portion of loss recognized in other comprehensive income		23.8

Net impairment losses recognized in earnings		(30.0	)
Net realized gains (losses) on securities		(1.7	)

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities		(31.7	)		(28.5	)	11
Service revenues		9.4			10.0		(6	)

Total revenues		8,444.0			8,473.8		0


Expenses:
Losses and loss adjustment expenses		5,728.1			5,897.8		(3	)
Policy acquisition costs		797.9			810.7		(2	)
Other underwriting expenses		918.0			910.6		1
Investment expenses		6.7			5.0		34
Service expenses		11.1			12.2		(9	)
Interest expense		80.2			80.0		0

Total expenses		7,542.0			7,716.3		(2	)


Income before income taxes		902.0			757.5		19
Provision for income taxes		304.5			220.8		38

Net income	$	597.5		$	536.7		11


COMPUTATION OF EARNINGS PER SHARE
Basic:
Average shares outstanding		668.7			669.0		0

Per share	$	.89		$	.80		11

Diluted:
Average shares outstanding		668.7			669.0		0
Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation		4.6			6.1		(25	)

Total equivalent shares		673.3			675.1		0

Per share	$	.89		$	.79		12

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

INCOME STATEMENT – OTHER INFORMATION

July 2009

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

The following table sets forth the comprehensive income (loss) for the period:


	Current Month			Year-to-Date
	Current Month			2009			2008
Net income	$	114.9		$	597.5		$	536.7


After-tax changes in (excluding cumulative effect adjustment ¹ ):

Net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		150.6			386.1

Portion of OTI losses recognized in other comprehensive income		0			(15.5	)


Total net unrealized gains (losses) on securities		150.6			370.6			(712.6	)

Net unrealized gains on forecasted transactions		(.4	)		(1.4	)		(1.7	)


Comprehensive income (loss)	$	265.1		$	966.7		$	(177.6	)


Per share	$	.39		$	1.44		$	(.27	)

¹	In June 2009, we recorded a $189.6 million ($291.8 million pretax) cumulative effect of change in accounting principle in accordance with the new accounting guidance for other-than-temporary impairments we adopted during the second quarter 2009.

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:


	Current Month		Year-to-Date
	Current Month		2009		2008
Fully taxable equivalent total return:

Fixed-income securities	2.0	%	6.7	%	(3.2	)%

Common stocks	7.6	%	12.6	%	(12.3	)%

Total portfolio	2.2	%	6.5	%	(4.7	)%

Pretax recurring investment book yield	3.5	%	3.8	%	4.7	%

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

July 2009

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

Current Month


										Commercial Auto Business			Other Businesses ¹		Companywide Total
	Personal Lines Business
	Agency			Direct			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	724.7		$	497.7		$	1,222.4		$	140.6		$	2.8	$	1,365.8
% Growth in NPW		(3	)%		6	%		0	%		(12	)%		NM		(1	)%
Net Premiums Earned	$	700.8		$	468.6		$	1,169.4		$	153.3		$	2.3	$	1,325.0
% Growth in NPE		(1	)%		8	%		2	%		(10	)%		NM		1	%

GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		71.9			70.4			71.3			61.1			NM		70.1
Expense ratio		21.3			20.3			20.9			20.7			NM		20.9

Combined ratio		93.2			90.7			92.2			81.8			NM		91.0


Actuarial Adjustments ²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years															$	1.7
Current accident year																(4.2	)

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	(4.6	)	$	.4		$	(4.2	)	$	1.7		$	0	$	(2.5	)


Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment															$	1.7
All other development																35.6

Total development															$	37.3


Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																70.1

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																72.9


Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																70.0
Expense ratio																20.5

Combined ratio																90.5

Primarily includes professional liability insurance for community banks and Progressive’s run-off businesses. The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $.2 million for the month. Combined ratios and % growth are not meaningful (NM) due to the low level of premiums earned by, and the variability of loss costs in, such businesses.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

July 2009 Year-to-Date

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

Year-to-Date


										Commercial Auto Business			Other Businesses ¹		Companywide Total
	Personal Lines Business
	Agency			Direct			Total
Net Premiums Written	$	4,459.2		$	2,980.4		$	7,439.6		$	964.0		$	13.7	$	8,417.3
% Growth in NPW		(1	)%		8	%		2	%		(12	)%		NM		0	%
Net Premiums Earned	$	4,344.6		$	2,845.3		$	7,189.9		$	968.9		$	14.2	$	8,173.0
% Growth in NPE		(1	)%		8	%		2	%		(9	)%		NM		1	%

GAAP Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio		70.7			71.4			71.0			64.4			NM		70.1
Expense ratio		21.1			20.6			20.9			21.1			NM		21.0

Combined ratio		91.8			92.0			91.9			85.5			NM		91.1


Actuarial Adjustments ²
Reserve Decrease/(Increase)
Prior accident years															$	(7.3	)
Current accident year																(21.1	)

Calendar year actuarial adjustment	$	(18.7	)	$	(7.9	)	$	(26.6	)	$	(1.8	)	$	0	$	(28.4	)


Prior Accident Years Development
Favorable/(Unfavorable)
Actuarial adjustment															$	(7.3	)
All other development																31.5

Total development															$	24.2


Calendar year loss/LAE ratio																70.1

Accident year loss/LAE ratio																70.4


Statutory Ratios
Loss/LAE ratio																70.1
Expense ratio ³																20.9

Combined ratio ³																91.0


Statutory Surplus															$	5,500.0

NM = Not Meaningful

¹	The other businesses generated an underwriting profit of $3.0 million.

²	Represents adjustments solely based on our corporate actuarial reviews.

³	Amounts include $13.0 million of statutory expenses that were incurred during the first six months of 2009 but were inadvertently excluded in prior months reported statutory ratios; these expenses were properly reflected in statutory surplus and our quarterly statutory filings.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)


	July 2009
CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET: ¹
Investments – Available-for-sale, at fair value:
Fixed maturities (amortized cost: $11,329.9)	$	10,944.2
Equity securities:
Nonredeemable preferred stocks ² (cost: $768.3)		1,154.2
Common equities ³ (cost: $313.9)		465.7
Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,394.6)		1,394.6

Total investments ^4,5		13,958.7
Net premiums receivable		2,574.7
Deferred acquisition costs		436.4
Other assets ⁵		2,384.6

Total assets	$	19,354.4


Unearned premiums	$	4,423.4
Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves		6,261.1
Other liabilities		1,320.8
Debt		2,176.5
Shareholders’ equity		5,172.6

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity	$	19,354.4


Common shares outstanding		678.6
Shares repurchased – July		1.5
Average cost per share	$	15.23
Book value per share	$	7.62
Trailing 12-month return on average shareholders’ equity		(.2	)%
Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on investments	$	160.3
Increase (decrease) from June 2009	$	231.7
Increase (decrease) from December 2008	$	278.5
Debt-to-total capital ratio		29.6	%
Fixed-income portfolio duration		2.6 years
Weighted average credit quality		AA+
Year-to-date Gainshare factor		.76

¹	Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves are stated gross of reinsurance recoverables on unpaid losses of $281.3 million.

²	As of July 31, 2009, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $6.8 million as a realized loss during the period we held these securities.

³	As of July 31, 2009, we held forward sale equity options which generated an inception-to-date loss of $1.5 million.

⁴	Includes $6.6 billion of short-term investments and U.S. Treasury securities.

⁵	Total investments exclude $21.2 million of net unsettled security transactions, which are included in “other assets” as of July 31, 2009.

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Monthly Commentary

•

For July, we experienced $37.3 million of total favorable prior accident year loss/LAE reserve development, primarily in our personal and commercial auto products, reflecting losses settling for less than previously reserved, particularly in our higher limit bodily injury coverages, as well as favorable run-off of our loss adjustment expense reserves, principally defense and cost containment expense reserves. On a year-to-date basis, our favorable development has been in our Commercial Auto business.

Upcoming Events

We are currently scheduled to release August results on Thursday, September 10, 2009, before the market opens.

Progressive is scheduled to hold a one-hour conference call to address questions on Wednesday, August 12, 2009 at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. Registration for the teleconference and webcast is available at http://investors.progressive.com/events.aspx .

About Progressive

The Progressive Group of Insurance Companies, in business since 1937, is one of the country’s largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle policies and a market leader in commercial auto insurance based on premiums written.

Progressive is committed to becoming consumers’ #1 choice for auto insurance by providing competitive rates and innovative products and services that meet drivers’ needs throughout their lifetimes, including superior online and in-person customer service, and best-in-class, 24-hour claims service, such as its concierge level of claims service available at service centers located in major metropolitan areas throughout the United States.

Progressive companies offer consumers choices in how to shop for, buy and manage their auto insurance policies. Progressive offers its products, including personal and commercial auto, motorcycle, boat and recreational vehicle insurance, through more than 30,000 independent insurance agencies throughout the U.S. and online and by phone directly from the Company. Private passenger auto products and prices are different when purchased directly from Progressive or through independent agencies. To find an agent or to get a quote, go to http://www.progressive.com .

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, are publicly traded at NYSE:PGR. For more information, including a guide to interpreting the monthly reporting package, visit http://www.progressive.com .

Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Statements in this release that are not historical fact are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to estimates, assumptions, and projections generally; inflation and changes in economic conditions (including changes in interest rates and financial markets); the financial condition of, and other issues relating to the strength of and liquidity available to, issuers of securities held in our investment portfolios and other companies with which we have ongoing business relationships, including counterparties to certain financial transactions; the accuracy and adequacy of our pricing and loss reserving methodologies; the competitiveness of our pricing and the effectiveness of our initiatives to retain more customers; initiatives by competitors and the effectiveness of our response; our ability to obtain regulatory approval for requested rate changes and the timing thereof; the effectiveness of our brand strategy and advertising campaigns relative to those of competitors; legislative and regulatory developments; disputes relating to intellectual property rights; the outcome of litigation pending or that may be filed against us; weather conditions (including the severity and frequency of storms, hurricanes, snowfalls, hail, and winter conditions); changes in driving patterns and loss trends; acts of war and terrorist activities; our ability to maintain the uninterrupted operation of our facilities, systems (including information technology systems), and business functions; court decisions and trends in litigation and health care and auto repair costs; and other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. In addition, investors should be aware that generally accepted accounting principles prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when a reserve is established for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding pending loss and loss adjustment expense reserves becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.

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